India: Growth set to cool in early 2026 – DBS

DBS Group Research, led by Radhika Rao with contributions from Daisy Sharma, expects India’s real GDP growth to slow in early 2026 after a firm second half of FY26. Their GDP Nowcast points to softer momentum in 1Q and 2Q, driven by weaker industrial activity, trade and government spending, with full-year 2026 growth seen easing from 2025.

DBS Nowcast flags softer momentum

"This week’s featured insight is GDP Nowcast, which is viewed as an estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data and forecasts for the current quarter."

"The new revised and rebased GDP series pointed to a modest but meaningful firming in activity in second half of FY26."

"Real GDP rose 7.8%yoy in Oct-Dec25 (3QFY26) from 8.4% in Jul-Sep25, benefitting from indirect tax rationalization, festive demand, firmer investment activity, and improved rural farm outcomes."

"Today we focus on India’s real GDP for 1Q26 (4QFY26), to be released later this month."

"As per our Nowcast model, growth is expected to moderate to 7.2% in 1Q and 6.9% in 2Q."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)