OECD warns: Energy disruptions from Iran war could trigger global recession and rising inflation
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report indicates that long-term energy disruptions caused by the Iran war will severely impact the global economy, potentially plunging countries into recession and increasing unemployment rates. If the disruption continues, global economic growth will decrease from 2.1% in 2026 to 1.8% in 2027, marking the lowest level since the pandemic and the Great Recession.
- In 2026, global inflation will rise by 0.4 percentage points, and in 2027, by 1.3 percentage points. Developing economies with limited energy reserves and Asian economies reliant on imports will be most affected. If strait transport resumes, global growth could rebound to 3.1% in 2027.
- OECD calls for strengthening supply chains and diversifying energy sources. Although recent ceasefire talks have led to a decrease in US gasoline prices to $4.26 per gallon, they remain significantly higher than $3.14 per gallon during the same period last year. Polls show that over 60% of Americans believe Trump did not do enough to protect the public from the economic impact of war, with the majority indicating their financial situation has worsened.
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