XRP falls below $1.20 as downside risk grows

Price stuck between $1.15 and $1.20

Current price action shows XRP trading within a narrow band between $1.15 and $1.20. At the time this article was published, XRP was trading at approximately $1.22, representing a modest increase of around 1% in the past 24 hours. Nevertheless, the price remains below its 100-hour simple moving average, a sign that downward momentum has not been exhausted in the short term.

The hourly chart reveals a downward-sloping trendline, with initial resistance situated at the $1.1950 level. In addition, XRP has failed to reclaim the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, calculated from the drop between $1.3640 and $1.1401, limiting the prospects for a swift rebound.

Mini glossary: The Fibonacci retracement is a tool used in technical analysis to identify levels where prices may temporarily pause after significant rises or falls. Investors often track these levels as potential zones of support or resistance.

$1.32 seen as critical resistance

From a technical standpoint, any sustainable recovery in XRP requires a decisive close above $1.1950. Should this occur, resistance levels at $1.20, $1.22, and $1.25 could come into play. However, a more definitive trend reversal would likely need to see XRP breach the $1.32 mark, which stands out as a major resistance zone.

According to analysis, a convincing close above $1.32 could pave the way for a move up to $1.43, which would mark an approximate 17% gain from current prices. Still, the presence of a negative histogram structure in the MACD indicator suggests that bearish momentum has not completely dissipated.

Technical analyst ChartNerd wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that XRP has slipped below the upper regression band of the Gaussian Channel at $1.35. Based on previous instances, he notes that such a break has historically pulled the price down to the middle regression band, which currently stands at $0.84.

Known for his technical analysis posts on social media, ChartNerd remains a prominent market observer. He indicated that if support levels continue to erode, a deeper correction toward $0.84 could remain on the table at some point in 2026.

Latest on support zones

If the downtrend extends, the initial support lies at $1.16, followed by a secondary support at $1.155. Breaching this area would turn attention to $1.15 and $1.144, while a drop below $1.144 would leave $1.14 as the final, albeit weaker, support zone in the near term.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently indicates oversold conditions for XRP. This could trigger some short-term buying as traders react to the signal. Nevertheless, analysts emphasize that an oversold RSI alone does not guarantee the start of a lasting upward trend; confirmation from other technical indicators is still needed.