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Eurozone bond yields fall as market remains cautiously optimistic about US-Iran agreement prospects

Eurozone bond yields fall as market remains cautiously optimistic about US-Iran agreement prospects

汇通财经汇通财经2026/06/04 09:11
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⑴ Eurozone government bond yields fell on Thursday, mirroring the movement of oil prices. The ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and Lebanon boosted market hopes for a broader deal to end the Iran war. It is expected that an agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will ease inflationary pressure driven by energy and reduce expectations for further interest rate hikes by central banks. ⑵ The yield on Germany’s 10-year government bond dropped 1.5 basis points to 3.02%; this yield had surged to 3.13% in late March, its highest level since June 2011. The yield on Germany's 2-year government bond, which is more sensitive to policy rate expectations, fell 2 basis points to 2.65%; this yield had reached 2.771% in late March, its highest level since July 2024. ⑶ Eurozone money markets currently expect the European Central Bank deposit rate to be at 2.65% by December, implying two rate hikes and a 60% probability of a third, with a 90% likelihood of the first rate hike occurring this month. The yield on Italy’s 10-year government bond fell 2 basis points to 3.77%, and the spread against Germany’s government bonds is at 72 basis points, narrowing from the late March peak of 103.62 basis points, the highest level since June 2025.
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