Inventory drops to a new low since April, copper prices stabilize against the trend, and longs and shorts face off amid tariffs and geopolitical risks.
- London Metal Exchange three-month copper rose 0.1% to $13,832 per ton on Thursday, after previously dropping 0.9%. LME data shows that 23,475 tons of copper were withdrawn from warehouses that day, of which 18,975 tons came from the New Orleans storage hub in the U.S. On Wednesday, 2,600 tons had already flowed out from New Orleans and Kaohsiung warehouses, bringing the total inventory down to 379,975 tons, the lowest since April 2.
- Traders said the arbitrage window for moving metal from the LME to the U.S. COMEX exchange is now fully open, making LME warehouse warrant cancellations commercially reasonable. ING analysts pointed out that copper prices have pulled back from recent highs, and heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran could suppress demand outlook. Price volatility is jointly driven by weakened growth expectations, rising energy costs, and profit-taking after tariff-driven gains. The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to submit tariff recommendations on copper imports to the President by the end of the month.
- Low inventory provides substantial support for copper prices, and the expansion in warehouse warrant cancellations indicates the spot market is still actively securing deliverable supply. However, the prolonged duration of the Middle East conflict and uncertainties regarding possible U.S. copper import tariffs are dampening bullish willingness to push prices higher. The market is currently caught in a tug-of-war between supply reduction and concerns over demand.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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