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Demand uncertainty shrouds the oil market, OPEC+ remains confident in assuming the role, and a single statement from Novak triggers a reassessment.

Demand uncertainty shrouds the oil market, OPEC+ remains confident in assuming the role, and a single statement from Novak triggers a reassessment.

汇通财经汇通财经2026/06/04 12:29
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⑴ Russian official Novak stated on Thursday that he had met with the Saudi Minister of Energy, and both sides agreed that there is uncertainty regarding oil demand. He further pointed out that all forecasts about the oil market need to be substantially revised. This statement implies that the current mainstream institutions’ judgments about global crude oil demand may already differ significantly from the actual situation.⑵ From a trading psychology perspective, Novak’s remarks reflect a cautious attitude toward the demand outlook among major oil-producing countries. Although the ceasefire agreement temporarily weighed on oil prices, the uncertainty on the demand side has not dissipated. Novak also emphasized that OPEC+ has the ability to offset changes in the global energy sector. This means that the alliance still stands ready to respond to potential fluctuations in demand by adjusting supply to maintain market balance.⑶ Overall, Novak’s comments convey two key signals: first, an acknowledgment that existing demand forecasts have failed and require recalibration; and second, a reaffirmation of OPEC+’s capacity to regulate supply as a stabilizing factor in the market. In the future, the market’s focus will be on how demand estimates are specifically revised and what concrete actions OPEC+ will take to address the uncertainty.
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