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Caixin Futures: Non-ferrous metals fluctuate with divergence, lithium carbonate futures price drops 4.62%

Caixin Futures: Non-ferrous metals fluctuate with divergence, lithium carbonate futures price drops 4.62%

汇通财经汇通财经2026/06/04 12:47
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⑴ On the macro front, geopolitical conflicts are recurring, with the US and Iran each sticking to their own narratives. Regarding copper, expectations are mounting for the US to adjust tariffs on imported copper; previous tariff expectations have sparked a “copper rush” in global markets. Recently, the Trump administration relaxed the “US copper” standard, and the tariff policy direction from the White House has weakened, causing copper prices to retrace. Meanwhile, high prices have dampened demand, leading to a strong wait-and-see attitude. From a medium- to long-term perspective, copper prices are still supported, but in the short term, the weaker effect from tariffs is likely to keep prices soft. ⑵ For aluminum, the Guinean government is expected to announce bauxite export control measures in June, raising market concerns over raw material supplies. Geopolitical tensions are causing the US dollar to remain strong, putting pressure on aluminum prices, but given the overall fundamentals, aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range. ⑶ For zinc, mine-side disturbances and persistently low overseas processing fees have dampened smelters’ production willingness; in addition, more smelters are scheduled for maintenance in June, leading to a strong expectation of supply contraction, providing a floor for prices, but demand remains weak. With geopolitical instability and fundamental factors providing bottom support, going long on dips is the preferred strategy. ⑷ Regarding precious metals, although on the 3rd local time the US House of Representatives passed a resolution aiming to limit President Trump’s authority to use military force against Iran and demanded an end to military action against Iran, the actual geopolitical situation remains far from optimistic. Taking into account the repeated US-Iran tensions and continued uncertainties, precious metal prices are expected to remain volatile in the tug-of-war between various sides. ⑸ Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices fell in tandem, with the main futures contract closing down 4.62% at 160,740 yuan/ton; battery-grade spot price was cut by 5,000 yuan to 165,000 yuan/ton. While downstream demand remains fundamentally resilient, it is difficult to digest incremental supply; spurred by rising holding costs, hidden inventories in the industry chain continue to flow into exchange warehouses, and the ongoing increase in warehouse warrants continues to pressure the market. There are concerns that the short-term destocking pace in the spot market will remain weak, with a consensus gradually forming around ample lithium salt supply. In the short term, lithium prices remain under pressure.
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