Ethereum faces $10,000 to $22,000 rally or drop below $1,825

Expanding formation dominates long-term outlook

According to analyst Gert van Lagen, Ethereum’s two-week chart is displaying a complex expanding diagonal pattern. Based on the Elliott Wave approach, this analysis suggests that since the 2022 bear market low, ETH has been forming a multi-year structure and is now potentially developing the fifth wave.

The chart highlights a five-wave corrective sequence within an expanding triangle. The first wave appears to have ended near the 2021 cycle top, and the fourth wave may have found its bottom recently, between $1,700 and $1,800. If the analysis holds, Ethereum could now be entering the final leg—wave five—of this multi-year pattern.

Glossary: The Elliott Wave theory explains price moves with wave structures linked to investor psychology. Diagonal formations, often seen at the end of trends, describe periods where the price range steadily widens.

Gert van Lagen’s analysis suggests Ethereum may be in the final stage of its multi-year Elliott Wave pattern; the last part of the fifth wave could deliver a robust rally, potentially pushing the price into the $10,000 to $22,000 target zone.

What stands out here is the expectation that the final “c” move within the fifth wave could exhibit strong momentum. The projected target area, $10,000–$22,000, shown as an orange zone, aligns with the top boundary of the expanding formation. The chart also points out that since 2022, Ethereum has maintained a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the positive technical setup.

However, this bullish scenario hinges on the fourth wave’s recent low remaining intact. If Ethereum drops clearly below that level, van Lagen warns that the validity of the expanding diagonal structure could be undermined and the long-term upside targets would be shaken.

Selling pressure rises below $1,825 in the short term

In the short run, the outlook appears more bearish. According to analyst Ali Charts, Ethereum first lost support at $2,073 and then, within three days, slipped below $1,825. This breakdown is a clear signal that selling pressure is escalating.

Recent price action shows ETH closing below the $1,825 level and trading around $1,746. This region was previously the main base for the consolidation phase. Losing this support suggests that sellers have taken control of short-term momentum.

The next key support sits at $1,603 according to the downside scenario. If the selling persists, Ethereum may test this level in upcoming sessions. Beneath that, $1,409 marks the next significant support zone.

Technically, since peaking near $2,359, ETH has started producing lower highs and lower lows. The successive breakdowns below $2,073 and $1,825 have solidified this negative momentum. But a recovery above $1,825 could ease this pressure and potentially reverse some of the bearish trends seen in the near term.