Analyst: Market Digesting Fear, On-Chain Metrics Show Bitcoin Has Bottomed Structure Expectation
BlockBeats News, June 6th - On-chain analyst Murphy stated in a post that BTC broke below the $60,000 integer mark yesterday, but the market loss did not deteriorate in line with the sentiment indicators. Currently, the 3-day moving average of the adjusted on-chain realized loss (EARL) is $1.13 billion, nearly half of the value on February 5th. He believes that this does not mean BTC will not continue to decline in the future, but the fact that EARL has not increased further in a lower price environment is a typical structure that signals a "bottoming expectation."
If EARL represents the market's level of fear, STH-RUL (Short-Term Holder Relative Unrealized Loss) represents the psychological pressure faced by new investors. During the downtrend after entering a bear market, short-term holders usually experience a severe psychological limit pressure, and STH-RUL will exceed +5 standard deviations, corresponding to a systemic crisis. Subsequently, even if the price continues to decline, STH-RUL often does not surpass the previous peak, as the chips have completed turnover in the high loss range, new buyers have lower costs, and market pressure is being absorbed.
Murphy believes that EARL and STH-RUL are currently giving a consistent signal that market panic is being digested rather than spreading. Despite price setting new lows, the loss indicators have not simultaneously set new highs, which is not a sufficient condition for a bottom. However, in history, true bottoms almost always have this characteristic. Bottoming is a process of repeated pressure and digestion until the chips complete turnover in panic, new buyers have low enough costs, and the price gradually loses momentum to continue falling.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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Updated version 1 - Reports indicate Firmus is considering adjusting its $5 billions IPO plan, while Australia's Maas Group shares plunged 30%.
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SK hynix (SKHY.US) subsidiary Flash Division reportedly selects Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to lead, aiming for a US IPO in 2027
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