XRP risks 50 percent drop after 71 percent fall in 2026

Persistent losses through 2026

Monthly return data shows that XRP has remained in a downward trend since the beginning of 2026. The token declined 10.6% in January, fell by another 16.2% in February, and saw a loss of 15.7% in the first week of June. April was the only month so far this year with a positive close, rising just 2.13%.

Analysts attribute the ongoing downturn to the persistent weakness in market structure that became evident at the end of 2025. XRP had enjoyed a dramatic 35% jump in July 2025 and a limited 2.49% gain in September, but closed the final three months of the year in negative territory. This selling pressure has since spread over a longer period.

Bob Loukas noted that XRP’s technical setup suggests the potential for a rebound, but the overall market structure does not point to a lasting recovery, with a further 50% drop by year-end still a significant risk.

Loss from the cycle peak hits 71 percent

According to Loukas, the latest slide has pushed XRP 71% below its cycle high. Despite this sharp decline, the analyst argued that XRP has outperformed many altcoins, which have suffered even steeper losses. XRP remains known as a digital asset linked with the network and is notable for its payment-focused use case.

With tokens trading around $1.12, the relative strength index (RSI) data appears to support Loukas’s assessment. The emergence of positive divergence on this indicator hints that heavy selling in June could be exhausting sellers, potentially paving the way for a short-term relief rally.

Mini glossary: RSI is a technical indicator that measures how strongly and quickly an asset has been bought or sold lately. Positive divergence occurs when the price hits new lows but the indicator fails to weaken to the same extent, sometimes signaling a short-term rebound ahead.

Rebounds may not hold

Previous cycles show that sharp recoveries can follow similar periods of weakness. For example, after a weak June in 2023, XRP surged 47.6% in July. In November 2024, following consecutive red months, the token recorded a powerful rally of 281.7%. These examples strengthen the case for a short-lived bounce in the current technical setup.

Nonetheless, Loukas stressed that any upward movement may not mark a permanent trend change. He believes the broader market structure remains bearish, and weakness in ’s weekly charts is adding to pressure on altcoins.

Against this backdrop, the global bottom for XRP may not materialize until autumn or winter of 2026. Until then, it is possible for XRP to lose up to half of its current value. During any attempted rallies, major investors are expected to take advantage of higher prices to sell.