WTI Price Forecast: Sticks to gains near $92.00; 200-SMA on H4 holds the key for bulls

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – gains strong positive traction at the start of a new week as renewed hostilities in the Gulf dampen hopes for a deal to end a three-month-old war. The commodity sticks to modest intraday gains around the $92.00 mark through the Asian session and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak.

Israel said that it carried out fresh strikes on military targets in western and central Iran after the latter fired waves of ballistic missiles  at Israel’s Ramat David air base on Sunday night. Adding to this, reports of Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and Iranian military action in northern Iraq raise fears of a wider regional conflict, threatening a fragile cease-fire and dampening hopes for a deal to end a three-month-old war. This, along with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, turns out to be a key factor lending support to Crude Oil prices.

From a technical perspective, the black liquid retains a capped tone beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly negative, hinting that bearish momentum is not yet exhausted. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 shows only modest positive bias and does little to offset the weight of the overhead 200-period SMA pivotal resistance at $95.38. Bulls would need to reclaim the said barrier to ease the current downside pressure.

On the flip side, the immediate downside focus stays on a strong horizontal support between $86.50 and $86.00. A convincing break below would leave Crude Oil prices vulnerable to renewed selling toward sub-$81.00 levels, or the April monthly swing low.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

WTI 4-hour chart