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Canada added 87,800 jobs in May, far exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate falling to 6.6%, but TD states that this is "unlikely to change the macro narrative."

Canada added 87,800 jobs in May, far exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate falling to 6.6%, but TD states that this is "unlikely to change the macro narrative."

汇通财经汇通财经2026/06/08 11:50
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⑴ Data released by Statistics Canada on Friday showed that the labor market added 87,800 jobs in May, far exceeding analysts' expectations of 10,000 and marking the strongest monthly employment growth since December 2024. The unemployment rate fell from 6.9% in April to 6.6%. Nevertheless, total national employment has only increased by 0.7% over the past year, and the number of jobs has decreased by 24,000 year-to-date.⑵ An analyst from an exchange noted in a client report that while this does represent some improvement compared to recent months, it does not necessarily change the overall narrative of Canada’s labor market. The market widely expects the Bank of Canada to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25% for the fifth consecutive time on Wednesday.⑶ From a policy logic perspective, the Bank of Canada is being pulled by two forces: on one hand, Middle East conflicts are driving up prices of commodities such as gasoline, while on the other hand, domestic economic weakness is eroding demand—with GDP having declined for two consecutive quarters. Going forward, attention will focus on Canadian inflation data and the central bank’s policy assessment of the divergence between employment and growth.
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