OECD warns that Mexico's economy may face another lost decade

⑴ The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) last week lowered its economic outlook for Mexico, drastically cutting its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.8%, down by 0.6 percentage points from the previous projection. In contrast, in a joint document released by Mexico's Ministry of Finance and the OECD in February 2026, the year-end growth outlook was still at 1.4%. ⑵ According to the OECD’s updated forecasts through 2027, Mexico’s average annual economic growth rate over the past ten years has been only 1.08%, below the historical average of 2.1%. Looking ahead to 2030, this trend is expected to continue, with Mexico’s economy hovering around 1%, far from the 2% average, marking yet another “lost decade.” ⑶ In addition, Mexico’s seasonally adjusted Consumer Confidence Index fell from 44.4 to 43.5 points in May, a year-on-year decline of 3.4 points, with all sub-indices dropping. The ability to purchase durable goods remained at a low of 28.6 points, down 3.9 points year-on-year, and households' financial ability to go on holiday within the next 12 months plummeted by 4.3 points year-on-year. As the World Cup kicks off this week, consumer wallets are strained and there is little intention for large expenditures, leaving the outlook for the economy and consumer spending bleak.