Bank of America Warns of Intensifying Bear Market Signals in U.S. Stocks

On June 9, Bank of America Securities stated that investors should remain cautious about U.S. stocks, as an increasing number of bear market signals indicate that the market is approaching its peak. A team of strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a report dated June 5 that approximately 70% of bear market signals have been triggered, consistent with historical averages during market peak periods. Among 20 valuation metrics for the SP 500 index, 17 show 'statistically significant overvaluation,' with 8 metrics even exceeding levels seen during the tech bubble. Additionally, high price-to-earnings ratio stocks have significantly outperformed low valuation stocks, which the strategists view as a sign of 'excessive speculation.' Within the technology sector, the gap between the best and worst performing quintiles has widened to the highest level since February 2000. The strong performance of the SP 500 index 'masks the severe internal divergence,' with the return gap between the top 10% and bottom 10% of index constituents reaching its highest level since the pandemic era over the past three months. While some tech stocks still have healthy fundamentals, Subramanian noted that 'cash flow conversion rates have stagnated, the supply of investment-grade bonds and stocks has increased, the proportion of stock buybacks relative to market value has declined, and capital expenditures of mega-cap cloud computing companies are expected to approach 100% of operating cash flow by the end of the year, up from 40% in 2023.'