Oil: Hormuz risks and hidden flows – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Global Strategist Michael Every highlights that Oil prices fell as the United States (US) energy secretary reported rising Hormuz transits, with evidence the US Navy may be moving more crude through the Strait than official data show. Every notes renewed crude offers from United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait, higher Saudi jet fuel exports, and warns that an extended Hormuz closure still carries unresolved tail risks.
Strait of Hormuz dynamics shape Oil outlook
"Furthermore, note oil had slid ahead of the latest attacks after the US energy secretary said Hormuz transits are ‘meaningfully’ climbing."
"Crucially, there is evidence suggesting the US Navy is ushering more oil through Hormuz, with transponders off, than official data on ship movements show."
"Indeed, both the UAE and Kuwait are now offering crude to Asia again, while Saudi jet fuel supply to Europe is higher than before the Hormuz closure."
"That may not get much fanfare, but it is extremely significant if so."
"Of course, oil then climbed after the US strikes on Iran - and a Hormuz reopening date beyond what we already expected (September) was just flagged."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Federal Reserve meeting minutes turn "hawkish"! Most officials support another rate hike this year, US dollar continues to rise
The latest minutes released by the Federal Reserve show that all 19 officials support a rate hike in September, and most participants believe that further interest rate increases may still be needed before the end of the year.
High yields on US Treasuries start attracting buyers; $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction sees strong demand as long-end yields give back gains
U.S. Treasury bonds showed mixed performance on Wednesday after a $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction saw strong demand, indicating that as yields reach multi-decade highs, some major investors are starting to re-enter the market.
Overnight U.S. Stocks | Federal Reserve officials expect another rate hike before the end of the year, three major indexes closed lower, Micron Technology (MU.US) rose 4%
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 341.41 points, down 0.66%, to 51,179.87 points; the S&P 500 Index dropped by 17.20 points, down 0.22%, to 7,801.73 points; and the Nasdaq Composite Index declined by 61.20 points, down 0.22%, to 27,538.69 points.
Federal Reserve meeting minutes: All 19 policymakers support a rate hike in September, but reasons vary; most expect further hikes this year, suggesting no urgency in October.
Most officials view a September interest rate hike as an "insurance" measure against stubborn inflation; a minority see it as a necessary step to curb inflation. Overall, there is no indication of a desire to push for consecutive rate hikes. The "New Fed News Agency" emphasized the minutes: "Most participants believe that it may be appropriate to raise interest rates again before the end of the year." Nearly all officials believe inflation remains elevated and the labor market is close to full employment. Many noted that, despite the rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, financial conditions are still conducive to economic growth. Some officials believe that AI will boost investment and productivity, but may also contribute to inflation. The minutes revealed that the U.S.-Japan joint intervention in July to support the yen was a U.S. Treasury action, with no Federal Reserve funds used.
Crypto prices
More
