Goldman Sachs Responds to SemiAnalysis' Bearish Report on US Stocks: Acknowledges Short-Term Capacitor Output Fell Short of Expectations, 800V Mass Production on Track
BlockBeats News, June 10th. Today, Morgan Stanley responded to the SemiAnalysis research report that triggered a significant pullback in the US stock market yesterday. Morgan Stanley agreed with SemiAnalysis's view that CPO's short-term volume did not meet expectations but still believed in CPO's explosive growth after 2028. They also explicitly refuted the claim that 800V production will be delayed until 2028, as the supply chain research indicated that the 800V cabinet will still proceed as planned in the second half of 2026. Yesterday, the independent research firm SemiAnalysis released a research report stating that two key technology paths for AI data centers have experienced significant delays, which was attributed as one of the main reasons for the sharp pullback in US AI industry stocks.
Regarding CPO, Morgan Stanley's view aligns closely with SemiAnalysis. They estimated that the global optoelectronic engine shipments in 2027 would only be between 6 to 7 million units, far below the market's general expectation of 20 to 30 million units. The core constraints come from TSMC's SoIC yield of only 50%-60% and downstream assembly yield as low as 20%-50%, creating manufacturing bottlenecks that will continue to weigh on short-term sentiment. However, Morgan Stanley maintained a buy rating on core CPO targets such as TSMC, believing that the period from 2026 to 2028 will be a transitional phase with pluggable optical modules, CPO/NPO, and copper interconnect coexisting, and the real explosive growth of CPO will begin in 2028.
On the issue of 800V DC power cabinet, Morgan Stanley's stance is in stark contrast to SemiAnalysis. Their supply chain research showed that the 800V mass production process has not been interrupted. NVIDIA stated at the Taipei GTC conference that the 800V cabinet will be ready for mass production in the third quarter of 2026, with Delta Electronics expected to be the first manufacturer to independently produce 800V cabinets at scale, delivering the first batch of products to leading hyper-scale cloud companies in North America in the fourth quarter of 2026. The fundamental disagreement between the two reports lies in the direction of the ±400V DC scheme – SemiAnalysis believes that ±400V will coexist with 800V in the long term, while Morgan Stanley's research indicates that the primary cloud companies have shifted their R&D focus from ±400V to 800V. This discrepancy will directly impact the competitive landscape of the power supply chain and supplier positioning. The initial shipments from Delta in Q4 2026 and the year-end orders for the ±400V sidecar will be the ultimate proof to validate the two judgments.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Another wave in AI infrastructure financing! Broadcom (AVGO.US) plans to raise over 50 billions USD for OpenAI's chip project.
Foreign media reported that Broadcom (AVGO, US) is arranging over $50 billions in financing for its joint development of custom AI chips with OpenAI, marking the latest example in the trend of large-scale AI infrastructure financing deals.
U.S. and Japan Intervene in the Foreign Exchange Market Together for the First Time in Nearly 30 Years; Federal Reserve: Action Led by U.S. Treasury, No Reserve Funds Used
The Federal Reserve stated on Wednesday that the intervention to support the Japanese yen at the end of July, jointly conducted with Japan, was led by the U.S. Treasury Department, and the Federal Reserve did not use its own funds in the operation.
BUZZ - Citi launches "positive catalyst watch" on Xero, expects upside potential for its fiscal year profit margin
On October 7 – Citi analysts maintained a "Buy" rating on Wellington-based Xero (XRO.AX), with a target price of AUD 91.55. In light of the recent share price weakness, the brokerage initiated an active catalyst watch ahead of the H1 financial results. H1 revenue is expected to see strong growth, including contributions from the recent acquisition of Melio. The software company acquired small business bill payments platform Melio in 2025 for up to USD 3 billion. FY2027 adjusted EBITDA is forecast to reach the upper end of Xero's guidance range (NZD 860 million to NZD 920 million). According to data compiled by London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), 11 out of 13 analysts have a "Buy" or higher rating on the stock, while 2 have a "Hold" rating. The median target price is AUD 118.5. As of the previous trading day's close, the share has declined 50.8% year to date. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into several other languages. As automated translation may be inaccurate or lack context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translations and provides them solely for readers' convenience. Reuters will not be liable for any damage or loss caused by the use of the automated translation feature.)
Updated version 2 - Levi Strauss raises annual profit forecast boosted by tariff rebates and holiday season demand
Reuters, October 7 (Angela Christy M/Danielle Kaye) – Levi Strauss (LEVI.N) raised its annual profit forecast on Wednesday after benefiting from tariff rebates and betting on strong holiday demand for its premium jeans and sweaters. However, the company’s shares still fell 2% in after-hours trading as sales in the US and Europe came in below expectations. Further details: In the quarter ended August 30, Levi Strauss received a $79 million tariff rebate under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, with plans to reinvest around $60 million of it this year into promotions and marketing activities. Comparable sales in its directly operated stores were flat in the third quarter. CEO Michelle Gass stated that the business underperformed due to declining US sales and “abnormally” warm weather in Europe, which suppressed store traffic. Gass noted that back-to-school marketing in the US focused too much on loose-fitting pants, overlooking the popularity of low-rise styles. Nevertheless, the women’s apparel line was a highlight, partly due to the expansion into tops, skirts, and dresses beyond denim pants. According to Gass, non-denim bottom products contributed about half of the company’s revenue growth this quarter. Gass added that as the jeans maker targets high-income consumers, the premium “Levi’s Blue Tab” line saw double-digit growth. Meanwhile, sales in Asia were boosted by a 13% increase in China and a new collaboration with singer Rosé. The company raised its full-year organic revenue growth forecast to 6%, reaching the upper end of its previous guidance of 5.5–6%. Full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance was also raised to $1.54–$1.56, up from the previous $1.46–$1.52. According to data compiled by London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), net revenue for the quarter ended August 30 rose 4% to $1.61 billion, roughly in line with expectations of $1.62 billion. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $0.48, surpassing analysts’ estimates of around $0.36. Independent retail adviser Bruce Winder commented that consumer-facing operations underperformed in the third quarter, adding that the US market continues to face challenges due to persistently high fuel prices. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters provides automated translations of its reports into several languages. Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translation and is not liable for any damage resulting from the use of translation functions. Automated translation is provided solely for convenience.)
Crypto prices
More
