Core Inflation in the U.S. Eases, Alleviating Recent Concerns for the Federal Reserve

On June 10, U.S. CPI data for May showed that inflation soared to a three-year high, but the moderate rise in core prices eased Wall Street's concerns about interest rate hikes. Today's CPI data and tomorrow's PPI index are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's policy stance, which will be announced at the Fed meeting chaired by Waller for the first time in a week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, before the CPI inflation data was released, the market had anticipated a 70% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by the end of 2026. However, the market believes that it is almost impossible for the Fed to raise rates at next week's meeting, with only a 13% probability for a rate hike in July. In the short term, the focus is on whether the Federal Reserve will clearly shift from a dovish stance to a neutral or hawkish stance at the upcoming meeting. This week's CPI and PPI inflation data, along with the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations, may influence the balance between neutrality and tightening.