Analysis: The SpaceX IPO Will Not 'Break' the Bull Market, But Investors Worry About Tech Stock Rotation and the Subsequent Surge in AI Funding

BlockBeats News, June 11th. According to CNBC, Wall Street generally believes that the stock market has the ability to absorb the additional stock supply brought by the SpaceX IPO, but investors are still concerned about the potential volatility following more large AI-related IPOs and financing frenzy. Data from Gavekal Research shows that in the 12 months leading up to September 2025, S&P 500 companies have collectively issued approximately $1.7 trillion worth of stock, equivalent to around $140 billion per month. The institution believes that SpaceX's expected $75 billion fundraising scale is only slightly more than the size of shareholder dividends over a little more than two weeks. In terms of the overall size of the U.S. stock market, these stock issuances are "surprisingly easy to digest," so the drag on U.S. stock performance from liquidity withdrawal should be short-term.

Not only SpaceX, companies such as Anthropic, OpenAI, and Alphabet are also seeking financing in the public market. Including SpaceX, the four companies plan to raise a total of about $380 billion, which is approximately equivalent to two months of issuance volume. However, IPOs themselves usually come with higher volatility. A review by Truist Wealth of the past 15 years of 30 large IPOs shows that the stock of newly listed companies often falls and experiences significant retracements in the first year after listing, with a median decline of 9% one year after listing and an average maximum retracement of 54% in the first year. The SpaceX IPO may also trigger internal rotation in tech stocks, with investors selling existing winners to invest in new stock offerings. Similar signs have appeared in the market this week, with investors shifting from high-flying chip stocks to defensive sectors such as consumer staples.

Furthermore, changes in Nasdaq rules may also amplify volatility. When SpaceX is included in the Nasdaq 100 index, its weight will not be calculated based solely on the $75 billion tradable float, but will use a 3x multiplier, equivalent to calculating the weight based on a $225 billion market cap. This means that post-IPO stock price movements may be magnified by passive fund chasing. Retail participation in the SpaceX IPO is unprecedented. Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, expressed concerns that this may leave many people with a negative experience, describing SpaceX as "not a lottery ticket" but a long-term investment that requires time to realize its valuation.