White-Haired Stock God: Technical Analysis is the Trader's Astrology, Stock Price Does Not Rise Due to "Golden Waterfall Candle" Pattern
BlockBeats News, June 14th, "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity responded firmly when asked about using technical analysis, stating: My opinion may disappoint many people. Technical Analysis (TA) is the astrology of traders, mainly used to confirm deviations and to exploit trader psychology to find entry points. It can help you understand what other retail investors and traders are thinking and believing at the moment, but it cannot reliably predict a stock's true upside potential. Serenity gave examples, stating that the previous surge in SPCE was not because of a "Space Comet Rocket Candle" appearing on the chart, but because the market was pricing in the future revenue of companies like JBL and AMD; similarly, AXTI's 8000% spike was not due to a "Golden Waterfall Candle Signal," but driven by fundamental factors such as indium phosphide substrates, export controls, and photonics demand.
Serenity emphasized that the correct research approach should focus on thematic correlations (such as the relationship between LITE and AAOI), news catalysts, forward-looking revenue projections, macro events, financial reports, float dynamics, and game theory. Through these, a reasonable market value for a company can be derived. Technical analysis is only suitable for assisting in finding entry points and risk management. It should never be used to determine where a stock will ultimately go.
Using IREN as an example, Serenity pointed out that many people drew chart patterns indicating a price of over $120, but in reality, the company needs to absorb a $6 billion ATM offering first. These technical chart patterns are essentially useless. Fundamentals, catalysts, and thematic research determine the direction. Relying solely on technical analysis can easily lead to a crash in current sectors such as AI and semiconductors.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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