Australian Dollar: Yield spreads point to downside – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to pause at 4.35% after three consecutive hikes and to remain data-dependent. With soft Q1 GDP, weak labour data and subdued sentiment, they would fade market pricing for another hike this year and note that Australia–US 2‑year yield spreads suggest AUD/USD could undershoot 0.7000 in the near term.

RBA pause weighs on Australian Dollar

"The RBA is widely expected to keep the policy rate at 4.35% (Tuesday), after delivering three consecutive 25bps hikes since February. The RBA signaled it is now in a data-dependent pause as it assesses how Australian households and businesses respond to this year’s tightening."

"RBA cash rate futures imply 60% odds of one final 25bps hike by year end to 4.60%. We would fade the risk of another hike this year. Real Q1 GDP pointed to sluggish underlying demand activity and the April labor force report was poor."

"Bottom line: Australia-US 2-year bond yield spreads suggests AUD/USD can undershoot 0.7000 in the near-term."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)