After a series of consecutive dips, precious metals have seen an accelerated rebound in recent days.
On
June
15
, the main domestic futures contracts for Shanghai Silver and Shanghai Gold surged by
7.7%
and
4.22%
respectively.
In the international market, the price of London spot gold started to recover after hitting the year’s low at
June
11
of
$4023.1
/
ounce, and has risen to above
$4300
/
ounce as of press time. Meanwhile, the price of London spot silver has also bounced back to above
$70
/
ounce.
"
Significant progress has been made in the US-Iran agreement negotiations, but differences remain and uncertainty is still high. Trump announced on social media the cancellation of further military strikes originally scheduled for that night, which sent a signal of easing tensions and was the direct catalyst for the sharp rebound in gold prices that day. However, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded cautiously, denying that all parties had reached any conclusions on core issues. Substantial uncertainty and implementation risk remain regarding the eventual finalization of the agreement.
" Guotai Futures precious metals analyst Zhan Dapeng analyzed that, on the macro front,
US
May
CPI
year-on-year rose to
4.2%
, in line with expectations but reaching its highest level since
April 2023
, significantly up from
April’s
3.8%
. Core
CPI
year-on-year
2.9%
also met expectations.
May
PPI
year-on-year rose to
6.5%
, exceeding the expected
6.4%
, and month-on-month
0.7%
, with core
PPI
year-on-year
5.4%
, indicating that inflationary pressures on the production side continue to spread.
In addition,
the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June rebounded from the record low in
May
at
44.8
to
48.9
, higher than the market expectation of
46
, but one-year inflation expectations remain as high as
4.6%
, and households remain pessimistic about the economic outlook. On the global central bank front, the European Central Bank announced a rate hike of
25
basis points on
June
11
, showing that the world's major central banks are tightening simultaneously to fight inflation.
He believes that this week
the core pricing focus of the precious metals market will fully shift to the Federal Reserve's
June
FOMC
decision
—
that is, the debut of new Chair Walsh. At
2 a.m.
on
June
18, East 8 Zone, the Fed will announce its rate decision and the quarterly economic outlook summary. The market unanimously expects the rate to be maintained at
3.50%—3.75%
unchanged, but adjustments to the dot plot and the statement from the new Chair will be the real directional anchors. This meeting’s dot plot is highly likely to tilt toward rate stability or even signal that most officials expect a rate hike. If the phrase
“
next step leans toward a rate cut
”
is deleted from the policy statement, it would mark a shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy stance away from the easing cycle since
2024
.
Currently, the
CME
market has fully priced in a policy hold for
June
, but the probabilities of rate cuts in
July
and
September
have been compressed to very low levels, meaning that for the gold market it is already at the
“
rate hike expectations are being priced in, but it’s unclear if they are fully priced in yet
”
stage, so trend volatility is inevitable. Therefore, at these key moments, the advice is to patiently wait for the
“
bearish
”
news to be realized, watch for any
“buy the rumor, sell the news
”
reversal around the FOMC, and continue to monitor the support strength at
$4000
/
ounce. The trends of silver, platinum, and palladium will still generally track gold. Recently, after substantial declines, support at the bottom has become evident, but it is important to note that gold’s subsequent performance will continue to dictate the direction of silver, platinum, and palladium.
Yangtze River Futures pointed out that the market has concerns over US fiscal conditions and Federal Reserve independence, while central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, spot silver remains tight, and the median price center for both gold and silver will move higher in the medium term. The supply of platinum and palladium is rigid, so in the short term, the entire precious metals sector remains in adjustment. For news flow, attention is recommended on the Federal Reserve's
June
rate meeting decision and Walsh’s speech.
Editor: Zhu Henan
