Opinion: Significant uncertainties remain regarding the details of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding draft

BlockBeats news, June 15, according to CNBC, the United States and Iran have reached a "memorandum of understanding" to end the nearly four-month-long conflict. Both sides have agreed to pause hostilities and promote subsequent peace talks. The market responded quickly: stock markets rose, while oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields fell in tandem.

Currently, the agreement has not been formally signed and the text has not been made public. The Iranian side stated that a draft has been finalized, with a signing ceremony planned for Friday in Geneva, declaring that "the war has ended permanently and immediately on all fronts." U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. will lift its naval blockade of Iran and push for a downgrade of related military deployments.

The core arrangements of the agreement include: a 60-day extension of the temporary ceasefire, framework negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and regional security issues. As a key point of contention, Iran reportedly demanded that the U.S. release billions of dollars in frozen assets as a condition for starting nuclear negotiations, but the U.S. did not accept this demand.

In terms of energy and shipping, Trump announced that he would promote "free opening" of the Strait of Hormuz and lift U.S. military blockade measures, emphasizing "let oil flow freely." Iranian media stated that reopening the strait would still be subject to Iranian arrangements. Qatar and other countries welcomed the agreement and stressed their support for freedom of shipping.

It is worth noting that Israel did not participate in the agreement and continues to maintain its presence in regional military operations. Its acceptance of the agreement remains unclear, making it one of the largest sources of uncertainty for the future situation.

Analysts pointed out that the agreement is closer to a "tactical de-escalation" rather than a final peace settlement. Core differences, especially over Iran's nuclear issue and the sanctions mechanism, have not yet been resolved, and there remains a risk of renewed escalation in the coming months.