The energy shock is not over yet, several investment banks warn that oil prices could return to above $90 in the third quarter.

BlockBeats news, June 15, as signals of easing tensions have emerged from the US-Iran conflict, the global energy market experienced a brief stabilization, but multiple investment banks and institutions warned that the aftereffects of the energy shock are not yet over, and geopolitical risk premium may persist for an extended period.

ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes stated that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still faces real obstacles such as the risk of naval mines and detained ships, and full restoration of shipping to pre-war levels may take several weeks or even months. He pointed out that before supply chains are fully normalized, the crude oil market will find it difficult to quickly fill the gap.

Westpac believes that global inventories were visibly depleted during the blockade of the Strait, and subsequent restocking pressure will further intensify market tightness.

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, expects that even if shipping immediately returns to normal, the global crude oil market could still face a shortfall of about 800 million barrels in inventory by November this year. He pointed out that current oil price levels remain insufficient to balance future supply and demand.

He also predicts that oil prices have a high probability of rebounding above the $90 range in the third quarter, potentially triggering a chain inflation effect.

HSBC Private Bank Chief Investment Officer Willem Sels said that this round of energy shocks has spilled over to the weak links in the global economy, particularly evident in regions such as South Asia, and that sustained high oil prices may continue to exert pressure on the recovery of vulnerable economies.

Analysts generally believe that although tensions are easing, risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainties in supply recovery will keep the international crude oil market in a state of high volatility and risk premium.