US-Iran peace talks may shift the market toward carbon-based directions; copper prices rise as non-US supply shortage intensifies; gold declines mainly due to deteriorating micro trading structure---0615 Macro Highlights
- US-Iran peace talks have made rapid progress, with the draft agreement including lifting the blockade, reopening the strait, and removing sanctions. Crude oil has fallen, gold prices have risen, and the stock market is strengthening. The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by about 0.6 times this year. If oil prices decline, market preference may shift from technology to cyclical sectors and industrial commodities, also known as "carbon-based" directions.
- Copper prices surged strongly in the second quarter, once breaking through to $14,097/ton, supported by solid fundamentals. COMEX inventory has surpassed LME, as the US accelerates copper stockpiling due to expectations of tariffs, power grid and AI demand, and strategic security considerations. The inter-market spread has widened, arbitrage windows have reopened, and non-US supply shortages are intensifying.
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The main reason for gold's decline is not central bank selling or liquidity tightening, but rather a deterioration in micro trading structure after increased leverage in the fourth quarter of last year, with liquidity tightening serving only as a catalyst. Liquidity is easier to tighten and difficult to ease; gold's absolute returns are limited, and it is necessary to wait for signals of trading structure clearance when gold decouples from US Treasury yields again.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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