Caixin Futures: Petrochemical sector falls due to spot and futures resonance; methanol weakens and asphalt continues to decline

⑴ Crude Oil: The United States and Iran have confirmed the contents of a memorandum of understanding. Both parties will sign the agreement on the 19th and commence nuclear negotiations. The agreement will open the Strait of Hormuz and lift sanctions on Iranian oil, which is expected to ease the energy and chemical sector supply chain crisis. Overseas crude oil continues to fall sharply, and the energy and chemical sector is expected to continue to see spot and futures prices drop in tandem in the short term, remaining weak and volatile.⑵ Fuel Oil: During the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities were attacked, and oil-producing countries cut production, while domestic dependence on high-sulfur fuel oil imports remained high. The U.S. and Iran have confirmed the contents of the memorandum of understanding, will sign the agreement on the 19th, and launch nuclear negotiations. The agreement will open the Strait of Hormuz and lift Iranian oil sanctions, which is expected to ease the fuel oil supply chain crisis, with an overall weak performance anticipated.⑶ Asphalt: Today, the price of Shandong 70# heavy traffic asphalt stands at 4,500 yuan/ton, -50 yuan/ton compared with before. Crude oil continues its downward trend, and market quotations remain on a weak decline, causing hesitation among traders. In June, domestic asphalt local refineries’ total output was 625,000 tons, down 249,000 tons month-on-month, a decline of 28.5%. As of June 15, inventories at 54 domestic asphalt sample plants totaled 784,000 tons, a decrease of 1.3% from June 11 and up 0.3% year-on-year; social inventory was 1,231,000 tons, down 3.7% from June 11 and down 33.6% year-on-year. Overall, asphalt is in a weak supply and demand situation. With a mid-term easing of U.S.-Iran tensions, asphalt may continue weak adjustments.⑷ Glass: Today, transactions in the North China market were average, and prices in the Shahe market were relatively flexible, with operators mainly buying on dips. The current daily industry output is 145,900 tons. Last week, the total inventory of sample float glass enterprises nationwide was 76.573 million heavy cases, an increase of 107,000 heavy cases (+0.14%) week-on-week and up 9.89% year-on-year.⑸ Soda Ash: Today, the domestic soda ash market was mediocre, and trading sentiment was quiet. Companies are adjusting production, with some suspending operations resulting in lower output. Current soda ash output is 109,700 tons, down 1,900 tons week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate of 80.66%. On Monday, total inventory at domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7065 million tons, down 5,600 tons from last Thursday. High supply and weak demand are difficult to change mid-term; in the short term, it may still be possible to short soda ash or long the glass-soda ash price spread at high levels.⑹ Caustic Soda: Recently, alumina procurement prices for liquid caustic soda have continued to rise. Low prices in Shandong have gradually converged, with prices for some supplies in Southwest and West Shandong increasing, while changes in North Shandong and other regions are minimal.⑺ Methanol: Today, the spot price in Taicang is 3,120 yuan, -55, and the price in the northern line of Inner Mongolia is 2,557.5 yuan, -57.5. Today, the overall domestic methanol market continued to decline across the board; after opening lower, futures remained weak at low levels, and the focus in ports also softened accordingly. Following the conclusion of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, commodity futures including crude oil have plunged in tandem, and some regional spot markets are showing clear panic sentiment, so the short-term market is expected to remain weak and consolidate.