Caixin Futures: Black Series Products Continue to Diverge, Coke Shows Strong Fluctuations, Steel Operates at Low Levels

⑴ Steel: The average daily output of hot metal remains at a high level, while terminal demand has further weakened. Moreover, investment data for May also shows a lack of downstream demand for steel, further highlighting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In terms of capital flow, the top twenty positions in the Rebar October contract have seen greater reductions in long positions than in short positions, while the Hot Rolled Coil October contract has seen long and short reductions to a similar extent. In terms of price movement, the Rebar October contract is declining as positions are reduced, facing resistance from the 40-day moving average above; in the short term, attention should be paid to the directional choice in the 3150-3200 range.⑵ Iron Ore: On the supply side, although iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased compared to the previous period, they are still at high levels overall. As the shipping surge from mines in June is gradually realized, supply-side pressure continues to be released. On the demand side, hot metal output remains high, and rigid demand continues to provide strong support. Technically, the September contract is falling as positions increase, with resistance near the 20-day moving average above and potential support around the 750 mark below.⑶ Coking Coal: Although Shanxi’s coking coal mines are continuing to resume production, safety regulation remains stringent, and the pace of supply recovery is relatively slow, so regional resources are still tight. On the demand side, downstream procurement enthusiasm is acceptable, but for some coal types whose prices had risen significantly earlier, downstream willingness to accept goods has weakened somewhat. In terms of capital flows, both long and short positions increased in the top twenty positions of the September contract, with a slightly larger increase in shorts, so position changes are slightly bearish. Technically, the September contract is falling as positions increase, with support in the 1,320-1,335 yuan/ton range below, and resistance moving down to around 1,385 yuan/ton above. Overall, Mongolian coal port inventories remain high, and near-month contracts are still pressured by available deliverable goods. In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate amid the interplay of delivery pressure, tight supply and demand, and resumption of production expectations.⑷ Coke: Due to the sharp rise in raw material costs, the immediate profits of coking plants are under pressure, and more coking plants are actively reducing production, so coke output continues to decline. On the demand side, hot metal output remains high and rigid procurement support is solid, so supply and demand remain tightly balanced. Driven by both rising costs and resilient demand, the willingness of coking plants to raise prices is still strong. In terms of valuation, the seventh round of spot price increases has been fully implemented, and the market price has already reflected expectations for the eighth round.⑸ Silico-manganese: At present, the fundamentals of silico-manganese remain weak and stable, with supply staying relaxed as manganese ore shipments have increased compared to the previous period and port inventories continue to accumulate. On the demand side, performance is weak, manufacturers' operating rates remain low, and in-plant inventories have also increased slightly. Downstream steel mills are clearly inclined to depress prices when making purchases, and transaction focus is under pressure. Technically, the September contract is falling as positions increase, with multiple moving averages providing dense resistance above and support at the 5,800 mark below. In terms of capital cons, both long and short positions in the top twenty increased, with the increase in long positions slightly greater than that in shorts, so short-term position changes are slightly bullish.