Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Previews Fed Decision: Unexpected NFP, Rising Inflation, Nasdaq Needs to Prepare for Defense

BlockBeats news, on June 16, Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang pointed out during an online livestream themed "Countdown to the Federal Reserve Decision" that the latest non-farm payrolls surged by 172,000, far exceeding expectations. Combined with both CPI (4.2%) and PPI (6.5%) rising, this demonstrates the resilience of the US labor market and intensifying inflationary pressures. This "strong employment + rising inflation" data combination has shattered the market's prior expectations of rate cuts and provides solid grounds for the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates, which is negative for high-valuation tech stocks such as those on the Nasdaq.

Regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction, Lewis Huang summarized this decision as Kevin Warsh's "perfect hawkish script". He noted that the market pricing logic is undergoing a fundamental shift, and previous expectations that an economic slowdown would force rate cuts are being overturned. Warsh is known for his tough stance against inflation, and the decision is expected to reveal an extreme "higher for longer" scenario. He reminded the market to pay close attention to the wording on structural inflation risks in the policy statement and the possibility of an upward adjustment to the long-term neutral rate in the dot plot.

Discussing specific CFD trading strategies, Lewis Huang stated that if the market is still holding on to the old expectations of rate cuts, this will be an excellent opportunity to capture expectation gaps and position for short trades. Under Warsh's lead logic linking stocks, bonds, and currencies, US Treasury yields will find it hard to fall and easy to rise, which is negative for US Treasury CFD; the US Dollar Index (DXY) will get strong support, significantly increasing the win rate for long positions; and high-valuation stock indices will face a severe test from rising real interest rates, so CFD traders are advised to constantly be on the defensive with regards to the Nasdaq index.