U.S. Treasury options traders are divided on the Federal Reserve's rate path, focus on the tone of the Waller press conference

Golden Ten Data reported on June 17 that options traders are increasingly divided over the Federal Reserve's near-term interest rate path, with various bets ranging from rate cuts in the coming months to hikes of different magnitudes. Swap market pricing indicates that it is almost certain the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at Wednesday’s meeting, and all attention will turn to Chair Waller’s first press conference in search of clues about future policy. Although the US and Iran are preparing to formally sign a temporary peace agreement, which has caused oil prices to fall to a three-month low and offered some relief to inflation pressures, future policy remains uncertain.