Everbright Futures 0617 Gold Commentary: Gold Prices Continue Strong Volatility; Attention on Tonight’s FOMC Meeting

　　On June 16, COMEX Gold fluctuated at a high level, closing at $4,353.0/oz, up 0.03%. The domestic SHFE night trading gold session opened higher, but momentum for further gains was limited, closing at 944.76 yuan/g, down 0.06%.

　　Yesterday, the Bank of Japan announced an increase in its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1%, the highest level since 1995, and announced it will suspend its reduction in government bond purchases starting April 2027. As this rate hike was largely expected by the market, the financial market reaction was subdued, and the impact on gold prices was limited.

　　On the geopolitical front, media reports suggest that the US and Iran will sign an agreement on the 19th, at which point the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened. Trump stated that the US will next shift focus to the Russia-Ukraine issue. US-Iran negotiations have made breakthrough progress—the future attention will be on the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz. For gold, as oil prices decline and inflation expectations cool, Fed policy may become less aggressively hawkish, which is relatively optimistic. In the past two days, market attention may focus on the US Federal Reserve's June FOMC decision; as it is Waller’s debut, markets will be looking at any changes in the dot plot and how the new chair’s remarks will be. There may be some volatility before and after the event in the gold market, but with previous market pricing, the situation isn't viewed pessimistically. In the short term, attention will be on whether gold prices can continue to rebound to inject more confidence into the market.

　　Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute

　　Written by: Shi Yueming

　　Professional Qualification: F03097365

　　Trading Consulting Qualification: Z0017563

Editor: Zhu Henan