When will the gold price rise above $4,900 again?

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新浪财经2026/06/17 10:06

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By:新浪财经

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Major UK commercial bank

Barclays expects international gold prices to rebound to $4,791/oz within the year, and could rise to $4,900/oz next year.

As tensions ease, structural drivers are regaining influence.

The bank pointed out that during the US-Iran conflict, the decline in international gold prices was mainly due to the strengthening US dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and climbing US stocks, which weakened gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. However, persistent inflation, uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, and ongoing gold purchasing demand from global central banks remain in place, so international gold prices could still rise to around $4,800/oz this year, and may reach $4,900/oz next year.

$4,900/oz

Bank analysts stated that international gold prices declined from their January highs to the June lows, reflecting the normalization of real interest rates, market expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year, and short-term attractiveness of rising US stock markets undermining gold's investment appeal.

Gold’s structural drivers—persistent US inflation, uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy, and continued reserve diversification by global central banks—will return to play a role after Middle East tensions ease. Analysts from the bank believe that for every percentage point increase in US inflation, international gold prices will rise by 5%. Inflationary pressures resulting from the current energy crisis will provide support.

Barclays analyst

team warned that despite maintaining an optimistic outlook for international gold price forecasts in 2026 and 2027, there could still be short-term downside risk. Especially after the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting, if references to monetary easing are removed, international gold prices may face pressured volatility.

In addition, investors should pay close attention to tomorrow morning’s Federal Reserve June FOMC meeting and the first statement from Waller at the press conference. The market expects the baseline for this meeting is that the Federal Reserve will abandon any signals of monetary easing and turn to a hawkish stance. If the new Federal Reserve chair unexpectedly sends dovish signals to the market, concerns about the independence of the Fed may combine with dovish messages to support international gold prices.

Editor | Jiao Yang Layout | Jiao Yang Visuals | Zhang Zongwei

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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华尔街见闻•2026/10/06 17:12