Bullish bets on the US dollar make a comeback as the US Treasury yield curve continues to steepen

(1) The Financial Times reports that investors are once again increasing their bullish bets on the US dollar, with the "US exceptionalism" trade returning. Traders expect that the strong US economy will prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting rates amid falling oil prices. (2) The Wall Street Journal notes that Trump selected Walsh initially expecting him to push for rate cuts, but the discussion faced at the new chairman's first meeting already involved the option of rate hikes, as the economic climate had shifted before his arrival. (3) Regarding the US Treasury yield curve, the spread between 2-year and 10-year yields remains in the range of 37.5 to 38.8 basis points, while the spread between 5-year and 30-year yields is in the range of 77.4 to 78.5 basis points, with the curve continuing to steepen overall. (4) Intraday fluctuations in yields across maturities are limited: the 2-year is between 4.04% and 4.06%, the 10-year is around 4.43%, the 30-year near 4.94%, and trading volume is clearly below average levels. (5) On Wednesday, the market's focus will be on the Federal Reserve's rate decision and Walsh's first press conference. Data such as retail sales and pending home sales will also provide clues to economic momentum. The market generally expects rates to remain unchanged, but adjustments in statement wording may signal a shift in policy stance.