US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding Exposed, International Silver Sees Technical Rebound

　　Source: Jintou Network

　　Yesterday, the silver market experienced a dramatic reversal, with bulls and bears battling around the $70 level during the Asian session amid hopes that the continuation of the US-Iran agreement would trigger a rebound. However, after the US Federal Reserve announced its policy decision during the early hours, the market situation changed abruptly—the unexpectedly hawkish statement triggered massive long liquidations. International silver prices plunged by over 3% in a single move, falling below the $68 mark. On Thursday (June 18), during the Asian session, international silver staged a technical rebound after the overnight "bloody baptism," with intraday gains expanding to 2%. Trump confirmed he had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, and the US released the official text of the understanding reached with Iran.

　　【News Flash】

　　According to a report on the 17th, a senior US government official read out the official text of the memorandum of understanding reached between the US and Iran to the media. The document contains 14 clauses detailing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the easing of certain financial restrictions on Iran, and it outlines the expected goals for addressing Iran's nuclear issue in future technical talks. The document is titled “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran.” The official stated that this agreement will immediately open the Strait of Hormuz and prompt Iran to destroy nuclear materials. Additionally, it has established a dynamic adjustment mechanism: if Iran shows further goodwill, the US will increase relief and sanction exemptions accordingly.

　　According to the document, the US and Iran will immediately and permanently cease all military actions on all fronts, including Lebanon, and both sides promise not to wage war or undertake military actions against each other in the future. The final agreement will confirm the permanent end of all fronts of war, including Lebanon. The US and Iran also commit to negotiate and reach a final agreement within no more than 60 days. Following the signing of the memorandum of understanding, the US will immediately begin lifting its maritime blockade on Iran, fully lifting it within 30 days, and promises to withdraw its troops from areas surrounding Iran within 30 days after the final agreement is reached.

　　Previously, according to a senior US official on the 15th, the US and Iran had already signed the memorandum of understanding electronically, and both parties will hold a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland on the 19th. However, US President Trump said at a press conference in France on the 17th that the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran might be signed on the 18th or 19th. The Islamic Republic of Iran News Agency also released the full text of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran on the evening of the 17th local time.

　　【Latest Silver Market Analysis】

　　The daily chart shows a bearish engulfing reversal candlestick pattern, with a large bearish candlestick fully covering the previous four bullish ones, indicating a clear trend reversal signal. Silver prices have lost key support at the 20-day moving average, the upper band of the Bollinger indicator is turning downward, and the MACD fast and slow lines are rapidly converging above the zero axis, with the red histogram contracting sharply, showing continued release of bearish momentum. The RSI index has also fallen rapidly, leaving the strong area, indicating that bullish strength in the market has weakened significantly.

　　On the four-hour chart, the price has fully moved through the downtrend channel, pressured below all short-term moving averages which are forming a strong resistance belt. Today's small rebound in silver price was only triggered by a technical correction due to temporary oversold conditions, and does not constitute conditions for a reversal. The short-term resistance above lies at $69.3–$69.5, while the mid-term strong resistance is at the $70 level. Any rebound reaching this area is likely to face intense selling pressure. On the downside, short-term lifeline support is at $67; if this is effectively broken, the price may retest the previous consolidation platforms at $66.8 and $66, fully opening up mid-term bearish room. Technically, the overall bearish structure is intact; the short-term correction is just a brief pause during the downtrend, with the overall market expected to remain weak and rangebound in the near future.

Editor: Zhu Henan