(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are lower and spot silver prices are sharply weaker in early U.S. trading Thursday, as markets continued to digest a hawkish Federal Reserve hold, higher front-end rate expectations and lower oil prices tied to U.S.-Iran de-escalation. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,244.60 an ounce, down 0.29%, while spot silver was trading at $66.995, down 1.36% on the session.
The Fed kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, but the post-meeting signal was hawkish. The June projections showed nine of 18 officials expect a rate hike this year, while Chair Kevin Warsh declined to submit his own dot and used his first meeting to streamline the statement and launch reviews of Fed communication, balance-sheet, data, jobs/productivity and inflation frameworks. The result is a metals market still trading the Fed through yields and the dollar rather than through recession hedging.
Market reaction after the Fed meeting remains rate-led. Treasury yields rose after the decision, with the 2-year yield reaching its highest level since February and the 10-year yield moving into the mid-4.4% area, while the dollar strengthened as investors priced less easing and more hike risk. Equity futures were higher Thursday morning as lower oil and U.S.-Iran de-escalation offset part of the Fed drag, but positioning in metals remains defensive: gold failed to hold Wednesday’s rebound above the mid-$4,300s, and silver’s break below $68 puts the 200-day moving-average region back in focus.
The U.S. and Iran signed an initial agreement to end the war, reopen the waterway and allow Iranian oil exports to resume, while the market still sees execution risk around shipping, insurance and the durability of the deal. The current impact is disinflationary and risk-supportive: Brent crude fell to the high-$70s, WTI traded in the mid-$70s, U.S. equity futures rose and the need for a pure safe-haven bid in gold faded. For silver, the lower-yield impulse is supportive, but weaker crude and firmer dollar conditions are pressuring the inflation and industrial-beta side of the trade.
U.S. equity futures pointed higher before the open, recovering from Wednesday’s post-Fed losses. S&P 500 futures rose 0.6%, Nasdaq futures gained 1.3% and Dow futures increased 0.2%. Technology shares led the early rebound, while travel-related stocks drew support from lower fuel prices.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading near $74.45 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $78.36. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is higher, with no approved live intraday level included.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,280 to $4,320 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,364 and then the $4,575 descending-channel high. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,240, with deeper downside targets at $4,200 and then $4,180. First resistance is seen at $4,280 and then at $4,320. First support is seen at $4,240 and then at $4,200.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $69.08 to $70.00 resistance zone, with a move above that zone targeting $72.00 and then $72.47. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $67.00, with deeper downside targets at $66.00 and then $65.00. First resistance is seen at $69.08 and then at $70.00. Next support is seen at $67.00 and then at $66.00.
