Oaktree Capital founder: Overly cautious people rarely achieve great things, and those who are still observing may miss the greatest investment opportunity in history

格隆汇2026/06/18 14:37

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Glonghui, June 18 — Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, recently discussed in a podcast whether the current market is experiencing an “irrational exuberance” and the opportunities and risks surrounding the AI investment boom. He pointed out that Alan Greenspan’s comments from 30 years ago could describe today’s market—we are indeed in a “boom,” though no one can definitively determine whether it is “irrational.” He used the example of SpaceX potentially going public with an estimated valuation close to 2 trillion USD, stating that deciding whether and at what price to participate in such IPOs is pure “guesswork”—unlike traditional value investing, you cannot simply put numbers on paper to figure out a reasonable price. Howard also mentioned one of his favorite sayings: the overly cautious rarely accomplish great things. He identified a contemporary investment dilemma: investing in these tech giants may result in huge mistakes, but could also deliver remarkable successes. Meanwhile, those sitting on the sidelines out of fear of risk might miss one of the greatest investment opportunities in human history. In contrast, investors in traditional industries like transport, distribution retail, and real estate are unlikely to make catastrophic mistakes, but also won’t catch this era-defining windfall. In terms of valuations, Howard provided a key reference: the current S&P 500 PE ratio is around 23 times—about 50% higher than the 80-year average of 16 times, but still much lower than 32 times during the 2000 internet bubble, and also below the “Nifty Fifty” era highs of 60 to 90 times. Thus, overall it is “somewhat high, but not yet out of control.” For AI investing, he proposed a three-tier allocation approach: investing in the super-large tech companies is the low-risk route due to their established businesses and cash flow; investing in vertical AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI entails higher risk but also a higher survival probability; and investing in early-stage startups is akin to buying a lottery ticket—most will lose everything, but a few will become extremely wealthy. He suggests that investors choose at which point in the risk spectrum they invest, or diversify positions across the spectrum, and then decide what proportion these companies should comprise in their total investment portfolio.

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BAE Systems won a Lockheed Martin contract to supply electronic warfare systems for F-35 Lightning II fighter jets. Order covers production deliveries for F-35 Lots 20-22. Deal also includes retrofit systems to modernize older aircraft in the global F-35 fleet. BAE Systems has delivered more than 1,500 F-35 electronic warfare systems to date. Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. BAE Systems plc published the original content used to generate this news brief via PR Newswire (Ref. ID: 202610061000PR_NEWS_USPR_____NE64821) on October 06, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.

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FXStreet•2026/10/06 13:45

BUZZ-GEO Group shares rise after completing $650 million debt refinancing

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路透社•2026/10/06 13:32

Updated: 2-ArriVent’s oral lung cancer therapy fails in late-stage clinical trial, shares plunge

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路透社•2026/10/06 13:21