AI data center bubble bursting? SemiAnalysis refutes rumors that "half of US capacity has been canceled or delayed"

Glonghui June 20｜Recently, there has been a wave of pessimism in the market, with widespread belief that the pace of US data center construction has slowed significantly. There are even rumors that "half of planned capacity for 2026 will be canceled or delayed," causing sharp fluctuations in technology and electricity-related stocks. However, independent industry research firm SemiAnalysis published a report countering this view: The market’s misjudgment mainly stems from information misreading and sample bias, the actual delivered US data center capacity in 2026 has not experienced a collapse, and overall construction progress remains resilient. This theory can be traced back to a Bloomberg report on April 1, which was later amplified and spread by various tech media using more sensational headlines. SemiAnalysis stated directly that this wave of panic narrative is essentially a fake AI-generated alarm; many forecast models simply use AI tools to extract content from press releases, taking unverified GW (gigawatt)-level project announcements as established facts, while failing to consider key variables such as actual construction timelines, grid connection processes, and government approvals.However, SemiAnalysis also acknowledged that some individual project delays do exist, but such adjustments are normal in the cycles of large-scale infrastructure builds and do not indicate weakening demand. The firm previously flagged project risks involving STACK Infrastructure, Oracle, Nebius, Core Scientific and others. The report noted that the current wave of extended or canceled projects is highly concentrated in the early-stage, speculative segments of the industry, and mainly involves structurally surplus capacity. In contrast, the real core delivery capacity for 2026 will come from high-quality projects with extremely high certainty. These projects typically meet several criteria: land rights have been confirmed, power supply solutions are clear, regulatory approvals are complete, long-cycle equipment orders have been secured, and substantial construction progress has been made.