The US-Iran memorandum of understanding takes effect, driving chemical reconstruction and linkage; the Indonesian market leads gains while Thailand consolidates — W25 Overseas Macro Insights
- The United States and Iran have confirmed that the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" has officially come into effect. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen to navigation, releasing $300 billion in reconstruction demand. The central oil cost is expected to move lower, chemical sector profitability is set for recovery, and the shipping and discretionary consumption industries will indirectly benefit.
- The Central Bank of Indonesia has raised interest rates twice consecutively over the past two weeks, reaching 5.75%, with a cumulative increase of 100 basis points this year. The goal is to stabilize the exchange rate and attract foreign capital. The stock market has risen by 10.4%, while communication, energy, and raw materials sectors are leading the decline. Thailand is consolidating at a high level; energy stocks fell along with oil prices, but macroeconomic improvements led to upgrades in GDP and export forecasts, with utilities and industrial sectors leading the gains and energy sector leading the declines.
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