According to CME "FedWatch": there is an 8% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in December, a 92% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike, and a 60.6% probability of at least a 50 basis point rate hike.
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Who will win? A bond storm sweeps through the US, Europe, and Japan, while global stock markets approach record highs
US Treasury yields have reached a peak of 5.31%, the highest since 2002, and European bond markets have fallen to multi-decade lows. Despite this global bond market turmoil, equities remain unfazed: the S&P 500 is approaching its historical high, with all of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks advancing, and the STOXX 600 index in Europe touched a new intraday record. Earnings growth, rather than valuation expansion, has become the core support for equities, while the ongoing wave of AI capital expenditure continues to attract funds. However, Ray Dalio has warned that the US debt cycle is nearing its limit, raising questions about how much further this divergence between stocks and bonds can continue.
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