AUD and NZD stabilize as markets focus on Australian inflation and employment data

1. On Monday, the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar remained basically stable. After the first round of US-Iran talks in Switzerland concluded, Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement saying that progress has been made regarding the roadmap to a final agreement, which to some extent eased market concerns about the breakdown of negotiations. 2. The Australian dollar was flat against the US dollar around $0.70, falling 0.3% last week, marking its third straight week of decline. Resistance is near $0.7088, and if support at $0.6979 is broken, it may further test $0.6834. 3. The New Zealand dollar fell slightly by 0.2% to around $0.5725 against the US dollar, dropping 1.6% last week, and once touched a three-month low of $0.5724. The next bearish target is at $0.5681. 4. Both the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are generally under pressure due to the US Federal Reserve's shift to a hawkish policy stance. This week, the market focus shifts to Australia's inflation and employment data to be released on Wednesday and Thursday, in order to determine whether the central bank's rate-hiking cycle has ended. 5. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser will speak on Wednesday, with markets watching for his comments on the inflation outlook. Deutsche Bank strategists pointed out that if the economic slowdown is less than the central bank expects, the risk of further tightening policy may increase. The current market expects about a 65% probability for the Australian central bank to raise rates again this year.