Dollar continues to press higher to start the new week

The US and Iran framework agreement remains fragile at best and as seen from the weekend, it can all fall apart at any point in time.

There is some progress in talks in Switzerland but until we do see some real evidence of progress, it's hard to imagine things actually getting better. For now, Iran doesn't really care and will look to take advantage of the concessions made - all the while the Strait of Hormuz remains in somewhat of a managed close/open.

In that lieu, oil price futures may reflect a decline in recent weeks still. However, the reality of the situation is that inflation pressures are continuing to ramp up globally. It's not just energy prices. Supply chain disruptions are also a massive headache for many businesses and firms, making for tougher times in needing to pass on costs to consumers.

And with that continuing to play out, we are starting to see markets shift to favour a more hawkish Fed. That is the key factor in providing a tailwind for the dollar at the moment.

As things stand, Fed funds futures are now pricing in ~41 bps of rate hikes by year-end with the first full 25 bps rate hike almost fully priced by September. What a change in the wind direction.

Fed chair Warsh's press conference last week was a key catalyst but his stance is very much predicated on what is happening in the Middle East. So, all roads lead back to Tehran.

For now, the dollar continues to nudge up with EUR/USD down 0.2% to 1.1445 and GBP/USD is closing back on its opening gap lower earlier - down 0.3% to 1.3190.

The latter continues to be plagued by UK political woes as well, with Starmer set to resign as prime minister and Burham set to roll out the red carpet for his march to Downing Street. But whatever the case is, things will continue to look tough for the pound with UK's fiscal position not likely to change for the better under Burham.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY is up 0.3% to 161.75 and AUD/USD is on the verge of a breakdown as price is flirting with a drop under 0.7000.