Caixin Futures: The non-ferrous metals sector remains under pressure and fluctuates; lithium carbonate once fell nearly 9% in the morning before narrowing the decline to 2.38%.

⑴ On the macro front, there are repeated fluctuations in the Middle East situation, the European Central Bank has officially resumed interest rate hikes, the Bank of Japan has raised its interest rate to 1%, and the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish stance in its June policy meeting. Market inflation expectations are heating up, global liquidity is tightening marginally, and non-ferrous metals as a whole are under pressure. In terms of copper, there is ongoing tightness at the supply (mining) end, presenting a pattern of tight mine supply and ample ingots; on the demand side, traditional consumption is in the off-season, but AI infrastructure construction provides a new curve for future copper demand. Overall, expectations are strong but the reality is weak, so short-term prices are expected to remain volatile.⑵ For aluminium, although geopolitical risks are easing, tighter liquidity still limits upward potential. Guinea is advancing industrial transformation and plans to announce export controls in June. Aluminium prices are therefore expected to remain mainly volatile in the short term.⑶ For zinc, mine disruptions and a decline in domestic and international zinc concentrate processing fees have fallen into negative territory, setting new historical lows and providing support at the bottom. However, demand is now entering the off-season with poor consumption, so short-term prices are expected to fluctuate within a high range.⑷ In precious metals, Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that after 18 hours of negotiations, the US and Iran reached an agreement document, with both sides agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu affirmed that Israeli forces will continue to remain in southern Lebanon, emphasizing that Iran "must never" possess nuclear weapons. Against the backdrop of ongoing fluctuations in the Middle East situation, precious metals are expected to remain weak in the short term.⑸ The main lithium carbonate contract plummeted nearly 9% in the morning session due to expectations of a major mine resuming production and the accelerated drop in spot Australian lithium ore prices. In the afternoon, the decline narrowed significantly, closing down 2.38% at 161,740 yuan/ton. The sharp early drop was led by the spot market: battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices fell 8,750 yuan in a single day to 157,150 yuan/ton, combined with an 8% drop in spot Australian lithium ore, rapidly driving down futures prices. However, as futures prices pulled back, the July contract discount to spot widened to 8,000 yuan, limiting short sellers’ ability to push prices further down, and concentrated short-covering at the close drove a price rebound. The current market remains a game between loose long-term supply and relatively strong short-term fundamentals. In the short term, there is a lack of strong negative factors to support further short-selling, so lithium carbonate is expected to mainly fluctuate and adjust. Today, warehouse receipts decreased by 1,560 tons to 50,415 tons.