Caixin Futures: The energy and chemical sector continues to operate weakly, with methanol port inventory increasing and asphalt adjusting at low levels.

⑴ Crude Oil: Over the weekend, Israel attacked Lebanon and Iran once again closed the strait, raising concerns about the breakdown of the US-Iran agreement. According to the latest situation, the US and Iran are still negotiating in Switzerland, with reports indicating progress on the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz, and Israel will also end nationwide public restrictions (including the border area with Lebanon), suggesting a low probability of further escalation. ⑵ Fuel Oil: The US and Iran have confirmed the contents of a memorandum of understanding, the first round of high-level talks between the two countries has concluded, and all parties have agreed on a 60-day roadmap. The agreement will open the Strait of Hormuz and lift sanctions on Iranian oil. Despite recent geopolitical fluctuations, the overall trend is towards easing, and fuel oil is expected to remain weak. ⑶ Asphalt: Today, the price of Shandong 70# heavy-duty asphalt is 4,450 yuan/ton, up by 20 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. Prices in some domestic regions were mixed today. Fluctuations in crude oil prices have affected purchasing sentiment, with participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude; transactions in the market are mainly at low prices. In June, the total asphalt production from local refineries in China was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons month-on-month (-28.5%). ⑷ Glass: Today, the float glass price remained weak. The Shaho market's large panel prices were basically stable, while some small panel prices softened. Market transactions were average, and purchasing was cautious. The domestic daily production of float glass is 147,500 tons. Recently, the "Three-Year Action Plan for Key Industries to Upgrade for Energy Savings and Carbon Reduction" was introduced, which specifically involves glass. Technological upgrades will raise industry costs and keep supply at a low level, but demand expectations remain weak. There is still medium-term supply and demand pressure, so prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels. ⑸ Soda Ash: Today, the domestic soda ash market trend was stable, with prices hovering at the bottom and limited room for adjustment. Operational fluctuations in installations were minimal, with individual companies adjusting their loads, but production was generally stable. Currently, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity is 78.72%. On Monday, the total domestic soda ash manufacturer inventory was 1.7264 million tons, an increase of 26,200 tons from last week (+1.54%). The outlook for medium-term high supply and weak demand is unlikely to change, and a short-term low-level oscillation is expected. ⑹ Caustic Soda: Over the weekend and at the start of the week, most brands of low-concentration liquid caustic soda in northern Shandong maintained stable prices, while the price of 50% caustic soda in Dongying rose, and some low-concentration caustic soda in the south saw a slight increase in lower-end prices. The profit index for downstream chlorine-consuming industries in Shandong is close to the lowest level of February this year, and Shandong chlor-alkali plants are operating at slightly low loads, providing price support. The market saw a short-term reduction in positions and a rebound, but downstream follow-through was weak, so the overall short-term outlook is for low-level oscillation. ⑺ Methanol: Today, Taicang spot price was 2,847 (-75), and Inner Mongolia North Line price was 2,445 (unchanged). On the first day after the holiday, the domestic methanol futures and spot markets generally moved weakly downward. After a sharp decline in futures, there was a slight afternoon rebound, with coastal buying following demand, but overall sentiment was weak. Last week, methanol port inventory was 632,400 tons, an increase of 66,300 tons from the previous period; producers’ inventory was 336,800 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from the previous period.