The rate hike cycle is likely over, but the Australian dollar's decline may be far from finished.

汇通财经2026/06/23 04:27

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1. During the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the Australian dollar continued its weakness against the US dollar, hitting a two-and-a-half-month low. As expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy outlook have reversed, some analysts believe the current decline may only be the beginning of a deeper correction.2. The slowdown in Australia's economic momentum, coupled with global energy prices retreating from highs, means the overnight index swap market no longer fully prices in further rate hikes, suggesting that the Reserve Bank of Australia's tightening cycle has likely reached its end.3. In contrast, the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates at least once more this year, making the divergence between US and Australian monetary policy paths increasingly clear. Just two months ago, markets generally bet on two more hikes from Australia and none from the Federal Reserve, but expectations have now completely reversed.4. Although officials from the Reserve Bank of Australia stated this month that further rate increases remain possible if necessary, investors generally believe the threshold for more tightening has risen significantly against the backdrop of slowing economic growth and falling oil prices. In the short term, the Australian dollar may continue to face dual pressures from narrowing interest rate spreads and cooling risk appetite.

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