AI Bull Market at a Key Crossroads, Semiconductor Market Facing "1995 vs. 2000" Debate

BlockBeats News, June 23rd, the core battlefield of AI trading is shifting from large-cap tech stocks to semiconductors, but this rally is also beginning to exhibit characteristics of a historical frenzy. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOX is still operating within a steep upward channel, and the strategy of buying the dip to the 21-day moving average has remained effective so far this year. However, this trade is becoming increasingly crowded. The SOX is currently about 23% above its 50-day moving average, although not at the extreme levels seen during the May peak, the short-term overbought conditions are quite evident.

Of more concern is that the SOX's monthly RSI has risen to levels near those seen during the dot-com bubble era. This indicates that the semiconductor trend is still strong, but momentum has entered a range typically only seen in periods of historical frenzy.

There are also changes in fund flows. The SOX's ratio to the Magnificent 7 has reached its highest level since 2019, indicating that investors are using semiconductors to express the AI theme instead of large-cap tech stocks. Goldman Sachs data also shows that the net exposure of the Magnificent 7 has recently declined, suggesting that these leading tech companies are becoming the "funding source" for AI chasing trades.

The volatility market is sending out more complex signals. The VXN/VIX ratio has recently surged, indicating that the volatility of tech stocks is rapidly rising relative to overall market volatility. The Market Ear believes that this combination of "spot price rising and volatility rising" is unusual, suggesting that the market is still robust, but the structure has become more fragile in both upside and downside scenarios.

If we look back to 1995, the SOX also experienced a sharp rise that year, followed by a painful correction, but that did not end the bull market, and the true frenzy stage did not unfold until the end of 1998. In other words, the current semiconductor market may only be experiencing early overheating in a larger cycle.

However, if we look back to 2000, the risk is higher. Comparing the MSCI Global Semiconductor Equipment Index with the NASDAQ performance from 1996 to 2003 shows similarities between the current semiconductor equipment sector's path and the late stages of the dot-com bubble. The author did not provide a definitive conclusion, instead leaving the judgment to the market: the current trend carries shadows of a bull market continuation and outlines of a late-stage bubble.

The speculative fervor in the Korean market has further exacerbated these concerns. On days of sharp fluctuations, the trading of Korean leveraged and inverse ETFs by market maker Gammas may account for over 20% of KOSPI's daily trading volume, indicating that leveraged products themselves could amplify market movements.

Meanwhile, there is a rare deviation between stock market and interest rate volatility. A significant drop in bond volatility usually favors an equity market rally, but the S&P 500 Index has not fully reflected this signal yet. For bulls, this may mean there is still room for upside; for bears, it implies that the current market may not be fully pricing in the risk.