Exceeding expectations by 2.9%, Norway's oil and gas production strengthens against the trend, slightly boosting Europe's supply confidence.

⑴ Data released by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate on Tuesday shows that the country's combined oil and gas output in May exceeded official forecasts by 2.9%, with actual daily production reaching 0.607 standard cubic meters, equivalent to approximately 3.82 million barrels of oil equivalent. ⑵ Although this output represents a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, considering Norway has nearly 100 offshore oil fields and monthly output often fluctuates due to maintenance schedules and various shutdowns, the better-than-expected performance reflects that maintenance activities disrupted production less than previously anticipated. ⑶ As Europe's largest natural gas supplier and a major oil producer, Norway's output has consistently stayed above the forecast range, helping to ease concerns over supply interruptions during the Northern Hemisphere summer energy demand peak. This is especially notable as Trump's tariff-related comments continue to disrupt global energy trade flows, highlighting the premium on stability of local supply in the region. ⑷ Going forward, market attention will shift to the scale of planned maintenance in July and whether the natural decline rate of gas fields accelerates. If output can remain near 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, Europe’s natural gas inventory restocking will benefit from a more ample safety margin.