South Africa’s Sibanye Stillwater sees mined platinum output falling 15% from current levels by 2034, an executive said on Tuesday, and a slower than projected uptake of electric vehicles supporting demand, tightening the market.
Platinum, mostly used in autocatalysts, faces a threat from the growing use of electric vehicles, which do not need the emission control devices.
South African miners, who account for 70% of global platinum output, are wary about adding new production due to uncertainty over long-term demand, leading to declining output as mineral reserves deplete.
“For platinum, we were looking at about 6.2 million ounces a year in 2019, and we see that moving down to 4.7 million ounces by 2034,” Kleantha Pillay, Sibanye’s executive vice president for sales and marketing, told analysts.
Global platinum output is forecast to decline to 5.46 million ounces in 2026, from 5.56 million ounces last year, according to Johnson Matthey.
Palladium output also expected to fall
Production of palladium, a platinum group metal that can substitute for platinum in some applications, is also projected to decline by 15% from current levels to 5.6 million ounces in 2034, she said.
Sibanye forecasts that electric vehicles will make up 35% of global car sales by 2034, Pillay added. This is lower than projections by the International Energy Agency that EVs will have a 50% share of global car sales by 2035.
“Every year for the last four years, the battery electric vehicle forecast has been tweaked downwards,” Pillay said.
She added that the easing of emissions targets by the European Union last December, as well as the US Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal to delay enforcement of vehicle pollution regulations, “buys a little bit more time for combustion engines”.
Sibanye said it expects recycled PGMs, a secondary source of the metals, to remain at current levels around 5 million ounces, and not materially alter market balances.
(By Nelson Banya and Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo; Editing by Jan Harvey)
