Zhang Jun from Galaxy Securities: AI and geopolitics are reshaping the macro framework

Zhang Jun, Chief Economist and President of the Research Institute at China Galaxy Securities, stated that AI and geopolitics, these two fundamental variables, are reshaping the macro framework. AI is becoming the starting point of a new Kondratiev cycle, bringing K-shaped differentiation to the economy and markets, while the current AI bubble has already entered the stage of verifying returns. Geopolitics is no longer just about localized conflicts; triggered by the US-Iran tensions, the global political and economic landscape is undergoing six major restructurings: the Middle East pattern, global geopolitical landscape, global economic cycle, global industrial and supply chains, global energy system, and global monetary system. Zhang Jun pointed out that in the AI era, the future anchor of currencies is expected to return to the productivity system. Tokens naturally become the optimal choice for the monetary anchor in the AI era: there is a vast, continuously high-frequency real demand market; they possess highly standardized attributes and can serve as a measure of value; and they feature decentralization and super-sovereign currency characteristics. The economic and national advantages of major powers will be amplified in the AI era. China has advantages in institutions, market, industry, and talent. Its industrial system has a competitive edge under the productivity system, and the internationalization of the RMB is expected to explore new paths.