CITIC Securities: Multiple shipping routes remain tight, global container shipping rates continue to strengthen

The SCFI index has increased for seven consecutive weeks. Mainstream FAK rates are at $5,000-$5,500/FEU, with premium capacity exceeding $6,200/FEU. The shortage period for US East Coast capacity is longer than for the US West Coast. The US tariff hikes and new CPSC regulations are prompting companies to move shipments ahead of schedule. Combined with the Panama Canal’s low water levels and resulting congestion, effective shipping capacity is compressed, leading carriers to strictly control space and limit sales; capacity for late June through early July is nearly sold out. The Latin America route has entered the peak stocking season earlier than usual, with rates rising across all trade lanes. The South America East Coast route leads in rate increases, and spot capacity premiums are significant. Expected adjustments in Brazilian tariffs are driving shippers to dispatch goods in advance; persistent congestion at key Latin American ports, a notable shortage of 40ft reefer containers, and slow empty container repositioning have led carriers to continuously impose GRI and PSS surcharges, keeping upward pressure on freight rates. Rates on Asia-Europe and Mediterranean routes are also rising simultaneously. It is projected that freight rates on both routes will increase again in July. Geopolitical disturbances on Middle East routes are driving up transport costs. Seasonal cargo volume is accumulating rapidly, and Red Sea detours are lengthening vessel turnaround times. There is uncertainty regarding capacity release in the Strait of Hormuz. To ensure schedule integrity, carriers are frequently skipping ports, resulting in a sustained tight supply of space.