Serenity: Currently reorganizing around storage, Neoclouds, photonics, and robotics; markets typically price in themes about eight months in advance.
BlockBeats news, on June 25, Serenity posted that, based on personal experience, the market usually prices in certain themes about 8 months in advance, unless the theme involves space, robotics, or quantum technologies. According to this rule, Serenity stated their layout of some CPO Scale Up related assets may be about 4 months early.
In the field of photonics, next-generation pluggable optical modules (1.6T) opportunities are roughly at the current stage, for example, LITE, COHR, Innolight, etc.; AAOI and JBL's 1.6T LRO as well as other assets with a later volume release may come in the first half of 2027. Opportunities related to CPO Scale Out are expected in the second half of 2026, NPO may serve as a bridging architecture from the second half of 2026 to 2027, and CPO Scale Up may arrive in the second half of 2027.
Serenity pointed out that storage remains a significant bottleneck, HBM3e is currently ramping up, involving companies such as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix; HBM4 is also close to mass production, HBF may appear in 2027. They believe that companies related to storage are currently in the middle of a bottleneck period, so they may continue to grow through compounding.
In terms of glass substrates, SKC Absolics is expected to start its early ramp-up in the second half of 2026, while the real opportunity may appear in the second half of 2027 to 2028. The humanoid robot supply chain is still at a very early stage, but with Elon Musk's optimistic expectations for Tesla Optimus and Chinese humanoid robot companies like UBTech and AGI Bot ramping up, the market may not wait long before pricing begins.
For Neoclouds, this may currently be a construction period for many companies, and some leaders usually see an inflection point in the fourth quarter financial report of 2026. Serenity stated they may next reallocate positions focusing on storage, Neoclouds, photonics, and robotics, and pay more attention to assets with pricing windows about 8 months out or those that can cover multiple themes simultaneously.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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