BCA Research raises S&P target to 8100 points, AI remains the core variable

BlockBeats reported that on June 25, BCA Research became the latest strategic institution to raise its US stock market target, reflecting Wall Street's increased optimism about earnings support for the US stock market in the second half of the year.

The institution raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 Index from 7,700 points to 8,100 points. BCA's core assessment is that first-quarter corporate earnings strength and breadth both exceeded previous expectations, and the US economy has re-entered an expansionary phase. Similar to JPMorgan, BCA believes that the current stock market rally is not only driven by valuation expansion, but that earnings themselves are actually "delivering" the index gains.

AI remains the core variable in this assessment. Large tech companies such as Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle continue to increase capital expenditure on data centers and AI infrastructure, driving growth in orders for chips, servers, construction, electricity, and related industrial chains. This provides a clearer fundamental basis for upward revisions of earnings for 2026 and 2027.

The institution believes the risk lies in the fact that the profit expansion brought by AI investments has already been quickly priced in by the market. If the subsequent return on capital expenditure is questioned, or if interest rates remain high, further upward movement in the index may require additional earnings confirmation rather than relying solely on investors' risk appetite.