Analysis: MSTR is down 78% from its peak, and its BTC holding cost has exceeded the spot price.

According to ChainCatcher, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Strategy preferred stock MSTR has fallen 78% from its peak, while Bitcoin is down 51% from its peak. The average holding cost for Strategy's 847,363 BTC is $75,651, with a total cost of $6.41 billion. The current BTC price has fallen below this cost line for the first time since the 2022 bear market. MSTR's additional decline relative to BTC has reached around 28 percentage points, close to the historical upper range but not yet touching the drawdown extreme of 89% at the end of 2022.

Meanwhile, Strategy’s purchasing approach has clearly shifted to a defensive stance: its weekly BTC purchase volume has been cut by about two-thirds, and less than 11% of the $335.5 million raised through stock issuance has been used to buy BTC, with the remainder transferred to USD reserves. At the end of May, Strategy also carried out its first net selling since 2022, selling 32 BTC to pay STRC dividends. Adler pointed out that the main current risk lies in BTC staying below the $75,000 treasury cost line, which would block the ATM financing channel for additional issuances by squeezing the MSTR premium. However, almost all of Strategy’s debt is in convertible bonds, meaning there is no margin call risk; the baseline scenario involves the withdrawal of marginal buyers rather than a cascade of liquidations. The true pressure point would occur if the company shifts from selling stocks to systematically selling BTC itself to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest.